I predict the anti-theocratic Iranian people will rise up again, but this time they will have a better chance of succeeding. Iran is as close as ever in forty-seven years to being able to topple their ruthless theocratic government stuck in the last millennium. The removal of the first tier of their autocracy, estimated to be fifty people, led by Ali Khamenei, was all killed in the first round in the first few minutes of the war, because the Supreme Leader unwisely chose to have a meeting of the top tier at his compound, which the Israeli intelligence and special operations, the Mossad, discovered. The sanctions we have imposed on the Iranian economy, and the losses from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, are costing them at least half a billion dollars a day. There are also more guns in the country. The Kurds have been arming themselves with our help. No regime can withstand sustained economic and military penalties. There are signs of cracks in the regime. No one is sure who is in charge, which suggests that no one is. There are at least four forces fighting for supremacy: the remnants of the theocracy, led by Mushtaba Khamenei, one of Ali’s sons, who also sustained major injuries in the first attack. Although chosen to replace his father, Mushtaba is in questionable control; the IRCG (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps), the regular army, and civilian politicians. They do not have a unified position, as evidenced by Iran’s ever-changing and conflicting edicts. And none of these forces has reached a tangible superiority. There is no money to pay the IRCG, the regular army, or the civilian politicians. There is no one left willing to go out on the streets and shoot the protestors. The nearly ninety million Iranians have by now reached a level of organization where they have weapons undoubtedly supplied by us and reached the level of sophistication where a leader who has a degree of popular support, such as the deposed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, can assume at least temporary leadership control until a more organized, formal government can assume control. Furthermore, the remnants of the old regime have not made any efforts to endear themselves to the Iranian population. They have continued to harass the population and keep up their hangings of protestors, including people in their teens and women, a sign of desperation.
Iran has no allies left. Their proxies have been severely degraded. Israel has practically eliminated Hamas, and Hezbollah has lost much of its forces with Israel’s bombing of its locations in Lebanon. The Houthis have not had much input into this war, as they have been intimidated not to violate the ceasefire agreement the US has with them. Iran has made a strange decision to attack its neighbors: Qatar, which has been neutral, but they have also struck US bases in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia with the intent to put pressure on all the Gulf states.
Iran is a country with tremendous opportunities with its central position between Asia and Europe, its vast natural resources in hydrocarbons, agricultural output, and industrious population. It deserves better!